Last spring, many interesting central banks and banks predicted that the Finnish economy could shrink by as much as 10 percent this year due to the coronavirus crisis.
However, according to preliminary figures received by Statistics Finland this week, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by only 3.2% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter. Working – day adjusted GDP was 4.9 per cent lower than in the corresponding month of 2019.
The Finnish economy is relatively unharmed
According to Eurostat figures, the Finnish economy performed best last spring in the EU.
EU GDP fell by an average of 11.7 per cent between the first and second quarters of this year – or more than three times worse than here.
Neighboring Sweden, which was more lenient with the pandemic and suffered from much higher infections and mortality, experienced an economic downturn of 8.6 percent over the same period. The total decline of Denmark, the second Nordic EU neighbor, fell by 7.4 per cent.
Yle mapped 22 leading Finnish economists on the outlook for the country’s economy. Twelve of them said they do not believe the economy will slow further this year or may even improve.
Seven said the situation was so dim that the fall could not be predicted, while three said they were expected to worsen the situation further.
Smooth transition to telecommuting
Everyone agreed that the outlook for the autumn is exceptionally uncertain and will largely depend on whether the Finnish export market recovers. Earlier this year, before the pandemic spread, many had full orders, but demand has since fallen.
“In many areas, the outlook cannot be assessed until the autumn. After the holiday season in [continental] Europe is running out, we are starting to see signs of the ability and willingness of international companies to invest after the crisis, ”says Nordea Bank’s chief economist. Wind Birch.
Almost all respondents said that the Finnish economy has survived the pandemic relatively unnoticed compared to other EU countries, as it better controlled the spread of the disease.
Economists agree that the government and other officials generally made the right decisions at the right time and that a large portion of the workforce transitioned smoothly to telecommuting thanks to stable digital skills and infrastructure.
Source: The Nordic Page
