The Finnish market research company interviewed 2,468 people in a survey from 11 January to 2 February. Respondents were asked to reveal which party they would vote for in the municipal elections – instead of the parliamentary elections – if the elections were held today and the results compared to the results of the December poll.
The revised question largely explains why some changes in approval classifications are so significant.
The support of the Finnish party, the survey received, has fallen by more than three percentage points to 18.8 per cent, while the support of the national coalition has increased by more than two percentage points to 18.3 per cent. The center, for its part, saw its popularity rise by one percentage point to 12.9 per cent, and no one is surprised given its strong experience in municipal elections and its proven ability to attract candidates.
Other changes were not as strong for the other parties.
Markku JokisipiläThe director of the Center for Parliamentary Studies at the University of Turku told YLE that the survey may prove to be a good approximation of the results of the elections in April.
“If we look back at how [municipal election] the polls have reached their targets, the accuracy was remarkably high in the last election, ”he said.
However, it is likely that the results of the poll will show more voting opportunities than the final election results, given that the parties have yet to finalize their list of candidates. The success of parties in municipal elections depends in large part on how many good candidates they can push into the community’s campaign path.
Jokisipilä considered that the most surprising part of the survey results is the collapse of the center.
“The party is now in a historically difficult place. The center must be almost completely successful in its campaign and candidate selection in order to rise [from the doldrums], ”He analyzes.
If the party fails, it can stare at the slightest draw in municipal elections since the 1950s.
The popularity of the Social Democrats, on the other hand, was not a surprise in light of the results of other polls and the popularity of the presidency. Sanna Marin. Although the popularity of the Finnish party decreased significantly from the previous poll, it should be relatively satisfied with the results, as it did not succeed in the previous municipal elections.
The 18.8 percent share promised by the survey would mean an improvement of 10 points from the 2017 municipal elections.
– The success of the Finnish party in municipal elections is not at the same level as in parliamentary elections. A unique feature of the Finnish party […] is that it is smaller than the municipal election party. After all, it has only 8.8 percent share, ”said Jokisipilä.
Aleksi Teivainen – HT
Source: The Nordic Page