prime minister Sanna MarinThe Social Democratic Party (SDP) is Finland’s most popular party just over two months before the municipal elections, despite some repression, according to Yle’s latest monthly party poll.
Support Jussi Halla-ahoThe Finnish party, which was at the forefront of the vote last month, fell by more than three per cent, leaving the populists second to the center-right National Coalition Party (NCP), whose support rose by two per cent.
"The SDP appears to be at the pillar station going into the municipal election campaign. The Finnish Party and the National Coalition Party, on the other hand, are very close to each other," opinion researcher Research Director of Economic Research Tuomo Turja told Yle.
Central Party ‘in historically difficult position’
Voter support for the SDP’s governing coalition partners, the Center Party, increased by one per cent during the last voting period, strengthening its position as the country’s fourth most popular party.
Traditionally a rural party led by Annika Saarikko, has generally been a strong performer in municipal elections, but faces a difficult challenge in the forthcoming elections Markku Jokisipilä, Director of the Center for Parliamentary Studies.
"The party is now in a historically difficult place. The progress of the Center Party would require almost complete success in the nomination and campaigning of candidates," Jokisipilä said, adding that if the party fails in these matters, the election result could be one of the weakest since the 1950s.
The background data from the Yle survey show that a significant proportion of those who voted for the Central Party in the previous municipal elections have now moved to the sidelines, uncertain about where to vote.
However, Jokisipilä added that the results of the latest Yle survey tell more about the support potential of parties in municipal elections rather than being a strong indicator of the outcome. This is because all parties continue to recruit candidates, and voter support depends heavily on how many good candidates the parties provide to voters.
SDP leadership ‘not surprising’
The return of the SDP to the top of the latest poll is no surprise, according to both Jokisipilä and Turja, as the party’s support has grown in several different polls and party chairman Marin enjoys widespread popularity.
Despite the decline in Finnish support, Jokisipilä believes that the party is still satisfied with the survey results, especially when the corresponding result in the elections would be a significant improvement on the 2017 municipal elections, when the party asked for only 8.8 percent of the vote.
"The Finnish party’s support in the municipal elections has not been at the same level as in the parliamentary elections. The specialty of the Finnish party among the larger parties has been that it has been smaller as a municipal party," Jokisipilä said, adding that the rise in party support has been based on the position itself as an alternative to other parties.
"It will now be interesting to see if the party can seize the support expressed in the survey," said Turja Economic Research.
At the same time, the national contact point, which has been Finland’s largest party for the last three consecutive municipal elections, is trying to operate even stronger this time. The party did better at the polling station in 2017 than the polls had predicted, Jokisipilä recalls.
Voter support for other parties changed very little in the latest poll: Green parties remained at 11.4 percent. Support from the Left Alliance and the Swedish People’s Party fell by 0.4 per cent.
The Economic Survey interviewed 2,468 people from January 11 to February 2, 2021. A total of 1,605 voters revealed their party affiliations. The margin of error was +/- 2.1 percentage points.
Source: The Nordic Page