On the Reykjanes peninsula in southwestern Iceland, an eruption can occur in a short time. This is the opinion of the geophysicist and Professor Emeritus Páll Einarsson. He explains that if the magma pressure is sufficient and the conditions exist for it to reach the surface, a distance of one kilometer can be traveled in a very short time. He notes that prior to the 2014 Holuhraun eruption, an igneous tunnel formed for two weeks before magma finally surfaced.
If an eruption occurs near Mount Fagradalsfjall, it is likely to be a crevice. Such eruptions can be powerful in the beginning, but are losing power quickly, as has been seen with the eruptions in the Krafla region of northeast Iceland.
Páll notes that it is also possible that the magma will freeze if its influx stops.
The width of the channel through which magma can escape is 1 to 2 meters. To illustrate this, Páll describes it as a table top 1-2 meters thick, erected vertically. Its upper edge is 1-1.5 km deep, and the lower edge is 4-5 km deep. It is believed that 10-20 m3 of magma per second flows into the channel now and is therefore expanding. The total volume of magma inside the channel reached 10–20 million m3.
“This is not a huge amount” Says Páll. “If all the magma reached the surface, the eruption would be comparable to the eruption of Fimmvörðuháls (southern Iceland), which was one of the smallest.”
The models assume that the channel has moved a little closer to the surface. Páll says the layers above the channel are likely weaker than those through which the magma has already broken. The groundwater could cool the magma, potentially creating a geothermal area there.
Páll explains that the main cause of earthquakes is that the magma channel affects stresses in the earth’s crust. It is probably above the quake epicenters.
Kristín Jónsdóttir, a natural hazard specialist at the Icelandic meteorological service, told Morgunblaðið that new satellite imagery showed a steady flow of magma into the channel. “The likelihood of an eruption continues to increase,” she concluded.
According to Morgunblaðið, ash radar was installed in the Strandarheiði lava field, south of Kúagerði, in the vicinity of the potential eruption.
The data collected by this device will be used to forecast the spread of volcanic ash on major air routes over the Atlantic Ocean in the event of an eruption. In this context, the height of the eruption column is an important factor, but it is also necessary to monitor how the volcanic ash and gases spread along the surface.
The ground in this region continues to shake. Today at 7:43 a shock with a magnitude of 5.0 was registered.
The quake table, which lists times and epicenter locations, can be observed HERE.
Source: Yle