– There is no doubt at all that the negotiations will be some of the most decisive and most difficult that the government will have in its period.
– It has long been planned that what the government would play with would be at a level that the support parties would not find sufficient in any way.
– And on the other hand, there are the blue parties, where it is a big open question whether the Liberal Party in particular will join an agreement. With the government’s proposal, very tough and very difficult negotiations are planned, says Hans Engell.
He estimates that the climate contribution of agriculture may become the issue during the government period that gives the government the biggest problems.
– It may be that you get into a situation where no agreement can be made at all. At least not on this side of the summer holidays, says Hans Engell.
The blue parties risk that, despite difficult negotiations prior to a possible broad agreement, they still end up with criticism from agriculture.
– How many political gains are there just for the blue parties in it? How much is there to pick up if they sit and make an agreement and then still be sharply criticized ?, says Hans Engell.
At the same time, the government and any contracting parties risk triggering criticism from industries other than agriculture. If agriculture escapes “cheaply” from its contribution to the target of a 70 percent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030, others will have to contribute more:
– Agriculture will emphasize that it will be a broad solution that does not burden the industry more than is absolutely necessary. This is faced by other business groups, which say that if agriculture does not deliver, others will have to. So it can also be planned for shoulder shifts between different business groups, says Hans Engell.
– The biggest risk is that the government can not really get a majority. That you simply stop because the support parties demand far more far-reaching intervention, and that the blue parties do not want to join, says Hans Engell.
In addition, there is concern in the top of the government that Jakob Ellemann-Jensen and the Liberal Party are currently so weak that the Liberal Party does not have the strength for a compromise.
– In a number of opinion polls, the Liberal Party stands to lose half of its seats. It is an open question whether a party leader who is very weak has the muscle to make an agreement, says political commentator Hans Engell.