A report from Roskilde University highlights how important it is to continue with the current restrictions – for at least five weeks at least.
Viggo Andreasen, who has been one of the most cited disease experts during the pandemic, and his colleague Lone Simonsen have produced a model that suggests that the infection rate will grow ten times and hospitalizations five times, the restrictions were completed today.
But by mid-July, when most people over the age of 50 would be fully vaccinated, the tide would begin to turn and the expected reproduction rate (R rate) of 1.4 would begin to decline.
The question, therefore, is whether it is worth enjoying the next five weeks – a period that many already refer to Euro 2020 – without having to worry about face masks on public transport, curfews and keeping the number down at weddings, confirmations and the like.
Four different scenarios: 1.0, 1.1, 1.4 and 1.7
Roskilde University Model suggests that the weekly infection rate will steadily increase to 50,000 and the weekly hospitalization rate up to almost 1,000 in mid-July. Today the numbers are 5,500 and 200.
These projections are based on completing all restrictions but still imposing local shutdowns. If local shutdowns were not enforced, the R rate would rise to 1.7.
In total, the researchers considered four scenarios. The other two involved a slight tightening of the rules (R Rate: 1.0) and a continuation of the current setup (1.1).
A total gamble
It therefore seems that the lifting of several restrictions would be something of a gamble when we are largely “at the finish line” in terms of how bad it can get, pointed out Rasmus Kristoffer Pedersen from Roskilde University DR.
“There will probably not be an explosion in the number of deaths as the older generations have been vaccinated. But the question is how many admissions are needed for us to say that it has gone wrong, “he said.
“We can still achieve a critical increase in the number of recordings during the summer. We can reach very high infection rates compared to what we are used to. โ
No holiday coverage
Health officials are concerned about the possibility of hospitals being stretched to capacity at a time when many employees are expected to take holidays.
It is hardly a secret that they have recently worked a lot of overtime, and many see July as a good time for a well-deserved break.
Professor Hans Jรธrn Kolmos from the University of Southern Denmark warns that this will be the case age groups that have not been vaccinated end up in the hospital.
For example, over 3 percent of all infected people in their 30s tend to end up in hospital, according to conservative health spokesman Per Larsen.
Source: The Nordic Page