Voter support for the National Coalition Party (NCP) has continued to grow since the party surpassed Yle’s monthly poll in the June municipal elections.
Just over a fifth of respondents, 20.5 per cent, said they would vote for the NCP if parliamentary elections are held now, which is 0.7 percentage points more than in the previous July.
Research Director Tuomo Turja research company Taloustutkimus told Yle that the background information revealed that more and more supporters of the central parties are turning to the NCP.
"NCP support has increased among retirees and people of working age, as well as less educated, professionally educated voters. Here you can see the consequences of NCP’s recent entry into immigration," Turja said.
At a time when Economic Research questioned voters in this month’s poll, the NCP released an immigration policy plan that led to social media protests over the party’s use of the term “native Finn” (translated as either “native Finn” or “ethnic Finnish”)) and a proposal to lower immigrants ’social security contributions.
Basic Finns accused the National Central Bank of stealing their ideas as the current Basic Finnish chairman Jussi Halla-aho invite a political proposal a "populist trick".
NCP chair Petteri Orpo, who recently returned to work after a heart attack in mid – June, told Yle that his party would be open to a government partnership with the nationalist Finnish party.
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The latest poll also showed support for the prime minister Sanna MarinThe Social Democratic Party (SDP) fell 0.6 percentage points, but the party remained in second place with 19 percent support.
According to Turja, supporters of the so-called “red-green” parties exchange their allegiances quite often between the SDP, the Left Alliance and the Greens, as this last voting period showed again.
"However, the biggest reason for the decline [in SDP support] is that those who voted for the SDP in the last election have now moved to the side," he said, meaning they were unwilling to reveal their party loyalty.
The resignation of Halla-aho had no effect on the support of Finns
Voter support for Basic Finns remained stable in a new poll, despite party chairman Halla-aho announcing in June that he plans to resign later this month at the party’s summer congress in Seinäjoki.
A inquiry According to a survey conducted by Helsingin Sanomat in July, the party’s support had collapsed and decreased by four percentage points, but Yle’s survey did not show a similar pattern, as support increased slightly compared to last month’s survey.
"During the summer, even the main supporters of the party have had something to think about other than the affairs of the party, which may explain why no change has taken place," Turja explained.
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The race to replace Halla-aho as party chairman has also not kept the party in the minds of voters, he added, because not much has been revealed in the media.
"Other studies have shown that supporters would have liked Halla-aho to continue, but his resignation has not led to their sidelining or supporting another party," Turja said.
Short-term support for the Central Party
Central party support rose significantly in the last poll in July, but the fluctuation in voter sentiment towards the party appears to be short-lived, with the latest figures showing a decline of 1.2 percentage points – the largest decline in party polls.
The party has lost a voter to the NCP and the Finns, and Turja said he expects this trend to continue.
"The situation was the same after the 2019 parliamentary elections." he added.
The Center Party is now fighting the government’s coalition partner, the Greens, for the country’s fourth-largest party. Support for the Greens rose 0.5 percentage points and the party chairman Maria Ohisalo he hopes to be able to continue this pace in the fall.
Among other parties, the support of the Left Alliance rose 0.6 percentage points to 8.6 per cent, while the Swedish People’s Party now has 4.3 per cent, the Christian Democrats received 3.4 per cent and members of the Movement Now group fell slightly to 1.8 per cent.
For the survey, the Economic Survey interviewed 2,386 people from 12 July 2021 to 3 August 2021. A total of 1,728 voters declared belonging to the party. The margin of error was +/- 2 percentage points.
Source: The Nordic Page