A new ECFR survey of 12 EU Member States, totaling more than 300 million citizens and accounting for 80% of GDP, found that while most Europeans see a new โCold Warโ between the US and its international competitors. between, China or Russia, very few believe that their country is directly involved in these conflicts. ECFR data reveal that across Europe, 62% of citizens believe that a new “Cold War” is going on between the United States and China, and that 59% see a similar contradiction between the United States and Russia.
However, according to the report, in both cases, Europeans see this as a position led by Brussels and not led by their national government. Across the bloc, the ECFR said only 25% and 15% believe their country is currently in conflict with Russia or China. There is a perception in almost every Member State that this is not the case – Bulgaria, Hungary, Austria, Portugal and Italy have the most in this respect.
Survey results- ”“What Europeans think of the Cold War between the United States and China” – written by foreign policy experts Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev, suggest that there is an increasing “gap” between the political objectives of Brussels and those of individual EU Member States, and that this could undermine an effective European response if tensions with China or Russia escalate. Referring to previous ECFR polls, which have revealed growing skepticism about Beijing and an unchanging negative perception of Moscowโs intentions, it warns EU leaders against accepting a โCold Warโ shaping the threats between China and Russia.
The main results of the ECFR pan-European study are:
- Most Europeans believe that a new โCold Warโ will take place between the United States and its international rivals China and Russia. 62% of respondents to the ECFR survey of 12 EU Member States believe that a new conflict or โCold Warโ is going on between the US and China, while 59% believe that a similar conflict is emerging between the US and Russia.
- But few Europeans see their country as participants. Only 15% of Europeans believe that their country is in conflict with China, while 59% disagree. As for Russia, 25% share this view and 46% disagree.
- At the national level, Europeans do not see China as a threat. According to an ECFR study, only 15% of European citizens consider their country to be in a โcold warโ with China. There is a difference of opinion in each of the 12 Member States that received the survey – respondents in Hungary (91%), Bulgaria (80%), Portugal (79%) and Austria (78%) are most likely to say that their country does not conflict with Beijing. Swedes, like previous ECFR surveys, appear to be the most hawk, with 33% believing that their country is currently in a โCold Warโ -like position with China.
- At European level, there is ambiguity towards China. Only 31% of respondents to the ECFR survey who expressed their views consider the EU to be at odds with China. This was a minority response, and more people, 35 percent, thought the EU was not in a โcold warโ with China. These data are in line with the ECFR’s April 2021 survey of European attitudes towards other global powers.
- In the eyes of Europeans, it seems that the “Western alliance” against China and Russia is today an alliance between Washington and Brussels – not the United States and European states. With national governments diverging their policies towards China or Russia, in almost all Member States (except Poland), respondents now see Brussels as a hawk in European foreign policy towards these authoritarian powers. The ECFR noted that of the 12 countries surveyed, 31% believe the EU is going through a Cold War with Beijing, while many, 44%, with Moscow expressed this view.
- The ECFR data do not support the hypothesis that, as a result of Brexit, Europeans would be obsessed with German power. Very few anticipate the rise of German power in Europe after Merkel. 34% of respondents believe that the German gold era is in the past. Only 10% expressed the view that its golden age is in the future, while 21% consider the glory of the earth today.
- However, they rely on Germany to define the EU’s interests in many policy areas, including defense. 36% of respondents to the ECFR survey said they trusted Germany to defend European interests if it played a leading role in “economic and financial affairs”. Similar support was given to the German-led human rights and democracy policy (35%) and to European security and defense issues (27%).
Leonard and Krastev believe that Europeans may “finally recognize the existence of a common European foreign policy” in China and Russia and see the EU as the best institution to “defend their interests” and values, rather than their own national governments. However, they acknowledge the risks involved in such a position and note that this gradual transfer of responsibility to Brussels may “isolate” Europeans from today’s “worrying problems”.
They point out that Brusselsโs madness over China and Russia runs counter to the train of European opinion and that if Washington and Brussels leaders prepare for the โwhole societyโ generations to fight for autocracy in Beijing and Moscow, they might find that they โhave no social consensus behind itโ.
They argue that while political leaders such as French President Macron had hoped that investing in EU collective sovereignty would reduce some Member States’ over-dependence on the US, “the opposite seems to be happening now” – and that in the eyes of most Europeans and not national governments. Cold War frameworks are likely to repel more voters than attract them and that policy makers need to justify a strong Atlantic Alliance in a new way.
To address this, Leonard and Krastev argue that policy makers should focus less on ideological divisions and the need for harmonization and focus on showing how a balanced alliance can strengthen and restore sovereignty in a world that is dangerous to European citizens.
ECFR commentator and founding director Mark Leonard said:
โEuropean citizens think a new Cold War is about to start – but they donโt want to have to deal with it. Our vote reveals that the โCold Warโ that framing may alienate European voters.
Unlike during the First Cold War, they do not see an immediate, existential threat to Europeโs neighborhood or a sense of ideological cohesion in a free world. Politicians can no longer rely on tensions with Russia and China to convince voters of the value of a strong Atlantic Alliance. Instead, they must take account of European interests and show how a balanced alliance can strengthen and restore sovereignty in a world that is dangerous to European citizens. “
Ivan Krastev, author and chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies, added:
โIf this new vote has got a permanent trend, it will reveal that Europeans are not ready to see growing tensions with China and Russia as a new Cold War. So far, only the European institutions, instead of the Europeans, are ready to see tomorrow’s world as a growing system of competition between democracy and authoritarianism.
The results of the vote are not necessarily a sign of the declining importance of the Western alliance. But it is a sign that, at the moment, EU Member States prefer to act as a mercantile list, but outsource the defense of principles to the EU. The fact that Brussels takes critical positions or imposes sanctions on authoritarian governments makes Brussels an American voice in Europe rather than a European voice in the world. “
This report and its recommendations are part of the ECFR’s wider project to understand Europeans’ aspirations for foreign policy. Previous publications in Unlock Europe’s Enemity include studies on how the COVID-19 crisis has changed political views and identities over the past 18 months, as well as research on European attitudes and expectations, supported by a survey. The United States during the Trump and Biden presidencies.
Source: European Council on External Relations
Source: The Nordic Page