Finland’s new regional authorities will be elected in January, and some smaller municipalities may end up without representation in the new bodies.
This is evident from Yle’s analysis of what can happen in the 21 new Assembly elections based on the results of the most recent municipal elections.
The analysis suggests that voters could be forced to weigh which is more important: the candidate’s party affiliation or place of residence?
Location may be important because new bodies share resources previously allocated to individual municipalities and some cities may be left without previously locally provided services.
It remains to be seen how this dynamic can affect, but Yle applied the results of the last municipal elections to 21 new districts to find out who will win if voting patterns remain exactly the same.
Yle found that the national coalition rose to the top of the poll nationwide and received 281 representatives. They were followed by the Center, the SDP and the Basic Finns, all of whom have more than 200 representatives nationwide.
Next would come the Greens, the Left Alliance, the Swedish People’s Party and then the Christian Democrats.
However, this pattern is unlikely to be repeated in the January elections. According to a recent poll, only 43 percent of respondents said they would definitely vote in the election, but past experience with voting polls shows that the turnout can be as high as 40 percent.
Election forecast
Election researcher Sami Borg The University of Tampere said Yle’s forecast is a decent rough guide to the election, although it is not a forecast.
However, much can change before January.
"Candidate lists, campaigning and voter enthusiasm are crucial," said Borg.
Marianne Pekola-Sjöblom According to the Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities, Yle’s forecast is good in mapping party loyalty, but possible election agreements were not taken into account in the calculations.
"Will MPs and other voters attend these new meetings? This may also affect the balance of power between the parties," said Pekola-Sjöblom.
At least a large number of MPs are so far unsure whether they are candidates in the election. This can have a detrimental effect on turnout.
"I don’t know if I’m too optimistic, but I hope we get about 40 percent," said Borg.
Some municipalities may be left without representatives
Some of the smaller municipalities have been concerned that candidates from the larger cities in their areas are collecting votes and small towns are left unrepresented.
Borg and Pekola-Sjöblom say the fear is not unfounded.
According to Yle’s forecast based on municipal election results, most of those elected to the new meetings came from large cities.
However, Pekola-Sjöblom says he is unsure that the regional centers will take up so many seats in the new configurations.
"On the other hand, more than half of the population in the capital lives in nine new areas," said Pekola-Sjöblom. "About 87 per cent of the population of the new Vantaa-Kerava regional administration live in Vantaa, for example, and Kokkola has 70 per cent of the population of Central Ostrobothnia. Candidates from these cities have an advantage.
The story continues after the picture
Toivo, the incubator of the National Coalition Party, has published analysis This suggests that eight of the new districts would receive a simple majority of the representatives of the largest city in the region.
The report, based on the results of the 2017 municipal elections, proposes that about 60 small municipalities be left without representatives at new meetings.
"It is quite likely that some small municipalities will be left without representatives," said Borg. "On the other hand, regional assemblies decide the whole region except for the affairs of individual municipalities."
In practice, according to Pekola-Sjöblom, the place of residence of politicians influences the decisions they make.
"The population should not be significant, but in reality the number of representatives received by the population centers is affected" said the researcher.
The story continues after the picture is taken
Voter Choice: Venue or Party?
The voting behavior of residents of small municipalities could be analyzed on the basis of the results of the 2008 local elections.
They were implemented after the amalgamation of several small municipalities into Hämeenlinna, Kouvola and Salo.
"In these elections, the number of elected small municipalities associated with large cities corresponded to the population or even more," said Pekola-Sjöblom.
Voters in smaller cities might then have to consider whether it is more important to vote by their party or hometown.
The electoral system ensures that parties are represented according to their support, but does not distribute seats geographically.
For example, in the last local election, less than a thousand people in Juupajoki voted. In Hervanta, a suburb of Tampere alone, the figure was tenfold.
If this model were repeated in the January provincial elections, it would put Juupajoki’s candidates at a disadvantage in the Pirkanmaa provincial elections.
According to Finland’s d’Hondt system of proportional representation, parties must carefully consider which candidates they will nominate for election. Is it worth choosing candidates from small towns? Or could they even be an advantage in the complex calculation of elections.
In the end, however, the choice is up to the voters to choose.
"But this is the case in all elections," said Borg.