The Scientific Council on Civil Protection met yesterday at a regular meeting to discuss seismic activity in the Reykjanes peninsula and the Askja region.
As of September 27, tremors have been ongoing southwest of Keilir, at the northern end of the igneous tunnel that formed earlier this year and erupted at Fagradalsfjall. About 2,000 earthquakes have been recorded in this area so far, 6 of which were greater than 3. No eruptions have been observed, but the seismic activity is similar to that which preceded the Fagradalsfjall eruption. At this stage, however, it cannot be ruled out that earthquakes may be caused by stress fluctuations in this area and not by magma movements.
Recent measurements of the movement of the earth’s crust show no clear signs that magma is making its way to the surface. However, magma can travel at great depths, which is not visible in the measurement data.
“We need more data” Says Sara Barsotti, director of volcanic eruptions at the Icelandic Institute of Meteorology. “New satellite images will hopefully shed more light on developments in the Keilir area next week, ”adds Sara.
Lava flow model for an eruption south of Keilir, assuming an eruption in a 1.5 km-long fissure in the area of the most recent tremors. To investigate the possible effects of an eruption in this area, the lava flow (100 m3 / s) is assumed to be 10 times greater than the average measured during the Fagradalsfjall eruption. The model shows where a lava tongue would have reached after a certain number of days, ranging from 1 to 14 days. Given the multiple lava flows, the lava would threaten the infrastructure after more than 2 weeks.
It is not recommended to visit the Keilir area.
There is little activity in the main crater at Fagradalsfjall from September 18. “The eruption so far was characterized by such interruptions” Sara says. “The change in volcano’s behavior, coupled with increased seismic activity near Keilir, could mean the magma is looking for a different way out. The source of the seismic activity in Keilir lies in an area connected to the igneous tunnel that formed this spring. So we are still closely following the developments and scientists and response groups are prepared in case the magma reaches the surface “ – sums up Sara.
Should there be an eruption in Keilir, it would be similar to that at Fagradalsfjall. The area is well-guarded and off the beaten track, but a popular recreational area.
The ground in the Askja area continues to rise
At the Scientific Council meeting, the latest measurements were reviewed and indicated that the ground was still rising on the western shore of Lake Öskjuvatn at a fairly steady pace.
Seismic activity in that region has been higher than usual in recent weeks. Earthquakes occur in known areas and are of a similar magnitude as usual, but their frequency has increased and has remained constant since the beginning of August.
The Meteorology Institute is installing new measuring equipment, but conditions are very difficult due to the weather and heavy snowfall after the blizzards earlier this week. An additional GPS meter has already been installed.
The Scientific Council will meet again in two weeks on the activity in Askja, and then determine possible scenarios for the development of the situation regarding this volcano.
Source: Yle