The first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer survey in 2022 shows that increased vaccination rates combined with easing travel restrictions due to increased cross-border coordination and protocols have all helped to unleash pent-up demand. International tourism recovered moderately in the second half of 2021, with international arrivals declining by 62% in both the third and fourth quarters from pre-pandemic levels. According to limited data, international arrivals in December were 65% below the 2019 level. The full effect of the Omicron variant and the increase in COVID-19 cases are not yet seen.
Slow and uneven recovery
The pace of recovery remains slow and uneven around the world due to varying movement restrictions, vaccination rates and passenger confidence. Europe and the Americas achieved the strongest results in 2021 compared to 2020 (+ 19% and + 17%), but still both 63% below pre-pandemic levels.
By sub-sector, the Caribbean was the most successful (+ 63% above 2020, albeit 37% below 2019), with some destinations close to or above pre-pandemic levels. The recovery in Southern Mediterranean Europe (+ 57%) and Central America (+ 54%) was also significant, but is still 54% and 56% lower than in 2019. North America (+ 17%) and Central and Eastern Europe (+ 18%) also rose above the 2020 level.
At the same time, the number of arrivals in Africa increased by 12 per cent in 2021 compared to 2020, although this is still 74 per cent less than in 2019. The number of arrivals in the Middle East decreased by 24 per cent compared to 2020 and by 79 per cent compared to 2019. In Asia-Pacific, arrivals remained 65% below pre-pandemic levels and 94% below pre-pandemic levels, as many destinations remained closed to non-essential travel.
Increased travel expenses
The economic contribution of tourism in 2021 (measured as the direct GDP of tourism) is estimated to be $ 1.9 trillion, more than $ 1.6 trillion in 2020, but still well below the pre-pandemic $ 3.5 trillion. International tourism export revenues could exceed $ 700 billion in 2021, a small improvement over 2020 due to an increase in per capita spending, but less than half of the $ 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
Average revenue is expected to reach $ 1,500 in 2021, up from $ 1,300 in 2020. This is due to large blocked savings and longer stays, as well as higher transportation and accommodation costs. France and Belgium reported relatively smaller reductions in tourism spending, at -37% and -28% compared to 2019. Saudi Arabia (-27%) and Qatar (-2%) also performed somewhat better in 2021.
Outlook for 2022
According to the latest UNWTO panel of experts, most tourism professionals (61%) see a better outlook for 2022. Although 58% expect to recover in 2022, mostly in the third quarter, 42% vs. potential recovery only in 2023. Most experts (64%) now expect international arrivals will not return to 2019 levels until 2024 or later, when the September survey figure was 45%.
The UNWTO Confidence Index will decline slightly in January-April 2022. The rapid and widespread introduction of vaccinations, followed by the significant removal of travel restrictions, as well as increased coordination and clearer information on travel practices, are key factors identified by experts. effective recovery of international tourism. UNWTO scenarios show that the number of international tourists could increase by 30-78% compared to 2021. However, this is still 50-63% below pre-pandemic levels.
The recent increase in COVID-19 cases and the Omicron variant will disrupt the recovery and affect confidence in early 2022 as some countries reintroduce travel bans and restrictions in certain markets. At the same time, the spread of vaccinations remains uneven and the boundaries of many destinations are still completely closed, mainly in Asia-Pacific. The challenging economic environment could put further pressure on the effective recovery of international tourism, with rising oil prices, rising inflation, a potential rise in interest rates, high debt levels and continued supply chain disruption. However, the ongoing recovery in tourism in many markets, mainly in Europe and the Americas, combined with widespread vaccination and widespread coordinated removal of travel restrictions, could help restore consumer confidence and accelerate the recovery of international tourism in 2022.
As international tourism recovers, domestic tourism will continue to recover in an increasing number of destinations, especially those with large domestic markets. According to experts, domestic tourism and travel close to home, as well as outdoor activities, nature products and rural tourism, are major tourism trends that will continue tourism in 2022.
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNTWO)
Source: The Nordic Page