According to a study commissioned by the Trade Union Confederation of Akava, an increase in labor migration would have a positive effect on the economy.
The report provides alternative estimates of how different types and levels of immigration would affect a country’s GDP.
"The message of this report is that labor migration is needed for every industry and every occupational group," says Olli-Pekka RuuskanenDirector of Research at Pellervo Economic Research.
The effects of work-based migration were examined through four scenarios.
Scenario a shrinks The labor force is based on Statistics Finland’s forecast for 2019, according to which 15,000 people will enter Finnish working life each year. This is not enough to replace workers leaving the labor market, which would weaken the economy.
The compensation the scenario assumes that working-age immigrants would compensate for losses as more people leave the labor force. In addition to Statistics Finland’s forecast, this would require an increase of about 5,000 employed immigrants each year. These migrants are expected to be between the ages of 15 and 64 and are expected to enter full-time employment immediately. In this case, the number of employees remains the same.
The grow steadily the labor scenario assumes that the number of migrants would increase by 6,000 in the 2020s and 10,000 in the 2030s. In this scenario, immigrants would fill positions in all occupational groups.
The technology experts The scenario also assumes that the amount of labor migration would increase by 6,000 in the 2020s and 10,000 in the 2030s. Here, however, immigration would focus on recruiting highly skilled immigrants to high-tech industries.
This last scenario would best boost economic growth, it is clear. However, there is fierce international competition for such abilities, so attracting them to move to Finland is seen as a challenge. On the other hand, the difference between this option and the steadily growing labor scenario is small.
"It cannot be said that only certain professional groups are particularly necessary. This is due to an aging population and the fact that we are facing an unprecedented level of retirement," Ruuskanen emphasizes and emphasizes that the labor force is a key factor in economic growth.
Lots of shovels, too few hands
"Suppose we have two shovels and two people digging wells. One of them is retired, making it difficult for one person to use two shovels. In fact, more hands are needed to use that capital," Ruuskanen explains.
He adds that if the working-age population shrinks, investment and technological development will not have a major impact on economic growth.
"GDP is a multiple of the work done. For example, machinery and equipment acquired through investment only help an employee to achieve higher production," Ruuskanen emphasizes.
The research commissioned by Akava has been produced by Pellervo Economic Research and Merit Economics.
Source: The Nordic Page