Washington – As if we did not have enough to worry about: Some scientists warn of the inevitable catastrophic effects on modern life from a super-big solar storm.
These eruptions from the sun, which emit energy in the form of magnetic fields and billions of tons of plasma gas, known as “flares”, are unpredictable and difficult to predict.
The Earth is hit by a devastating direct hit every two centuries, according to recent analyzes of scientific data and historical narratives. Previously, these were mainly celestial events with spectacular aurora borealis shows but little impact on humanity. However, modern technology is vulnerable to shocks from extreme solar storms.
“It’s not as rare as an asteroid or a comet hitting Earth, but it’s something that really needs to be addressed by decision makers,” said Daniel Baker, a prominent professor of planetary and space physics at the University of Colorado. “Sure, in the long run it’s not a question of if but when.”
Astrophysicists estimate the probability of a solar storm that can cause disaster to as high as 12% in a decade.
“It’s just a matter of time,” says Professor Raimund Muscheler, chair of Quaternary Sciences at the Department of Geology at Lund University in Sweden. “You have to be aware of that and you have to calculate the risks and be prepared as much as possible.”
A new study of ancient ice samples carried out by the Swedish researcher concludes that a previously unknown, enormous solar storm about 9,200 years ago would have paralyzed communication if it had hit the earth in modern times.
“A failure in one type of sector can propagate through the system and affect a lot of other things, and I think that is what probably worries me most about storms is that they can be widespread and have consequences in all types of systems that which we might not otherwise think of, Baker said.
FILE – This time exposure image shows a trace of a group of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites passing over Uruguay, approximately 185 km north of Montevideo, on February 6, 2021. Up to 40 SpaceX high-speed Internet satellites were knocked out of orbit by a geomagnetic storm shortly after. the launch.
A relatively small solar storm, which caused a disturbance in the Earth’s magnetic field, is blamed for the loss of as many as 40 of the 49 Starlink Internet satellites launched on February 3 from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
Phases of disturbances
When the sun releases energy, it affects the earth in phases. The first occurs here eight minutes after the solar event 150 million kilometers away, the time it takes the light to travel from the sun.
The first problems arise on the planet’s daylight side from the early incoming X-rays, which dramatically disrupt the ionosphere – where the Earth’s atmosphere meets space – and radio communications. They also create additional features on some satellites, which degrades their orbits, which is what happened to the Starlink satellites.
During subsequent minutes and hours, highly charged particles release a radioactive storm, which poses a danger to astronauts in orbit.
The third phase, known as coronal mass ejection – gas and magnetic field explosions on the sun’s surface – disrupts the planet’s magnetosphere, illuminating the sky and inducing electric currents on the surface, which can overload the power grids and accelerate corrosion of pipelines.
“The geomagnetic storm can actually cause transformers to burn through if they are not sufficiently protected,” says Muscheler at Lund University.
FILE – The sun rises over Mount Hood in the aftermath of the largest solar storm in years, over Portland, Oregon, on March 8, 2012.
The power industry in North America has taken measures in recent years to harden its infrastructure to protect against the dangerous surges. US government agencies have a program to distribute emergency transformers to replace those that would fail.
“Although the U.S. government has estimated the cost of a severe space event at billions, this worst-case scenario is not usually considered by most policy makers,” said Sangeetha Abdu Jyothi, associate professor of computer science at the University of California, Irvine. “In short, the risk is well known, but not always taken into account in design and planning in most cases.”
Long-distance fiber-optic cables and submarine cables at higher latitudes, where the earth is more exposed, can also be seriously damaged.
“The United States is very receptive to being disconnected from Europe,” Jyothi wrote in one recent research article. “Europe is in a vulnerable position but is more resilient due to the presence of a larger number of shorter cables. Asia has relatively high resilience with Singapore as a hub with connections to several countries.
The sun often throws large flares at the earth, but most are not large enough to cause devastation or not hit the planet directly. But, as SpaceX experienced this week, even some of the less severe flames could neutralize satellites.
“Timing is unfortunate for SpaceX,” said Bill Murtagh, program coordinator for the Space Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He added that the 1,500 SpaceX satellites already in orbit were not affected.
Every major solar storm poses a threat to Global Positioning System satellites, which provide accurate time signals and accurate navigation, technology that is crucial in modern life from agriculture to aviation.
A major storm could also trigger ozone depletion, which means there are possible effects on the terrestrial climate, according to atmospheric researchers.
Previous disorders
The societal reactions to the solar flares of recent centuries now seem picturesque, even though they were sensational events at the time.
When an intense geomagnetic storm hit Earth in September 1859, known as the Carrington Event, telegraph systems failed across North America and Europe, and some operators reported electric shocks.
A solar storm in March 1989 caused a power outage in Quebec, Canada.
The Halloween storms 2003 affected more than half of the orbiting satellites and disrupted the flight for more than a day because aircraft could not be tracked accurately. The electricity service was also shut down in parts of Europe for several hours and transformers in South Africa were permanently damaged.
Since the Carrington Event, the latest communication has gone from the telegraph to the internet.
‘Are we ready for an event in the Carrington class? No, we still have work to do, says Murtagh from NOAA to VOA.
“While the frequency of climate catastrophes is gradually increasing, we will be surprised by an extreme solar event that causes significant disruption. Most people living today have never experienced an extreme space weather event that has a global impact in our lifetime,” says Jyothi of the University of California-Irvine. to VOA.
She also warned that solar storms could cause large-scale internet outages that cover the entire world and last for several months.
FILE – Sunspots observed on the sun, 24 August 2015. (NASA photo with permission from NOAA)
The geomagnetic storms tend to happen more often when there are more sunspots (each such freckle on the sun is about the size of the earth). The sun is heading into a new cycle, which means that there is an increasing probability of disturbing events when this cycle ramps up to its predicted peak in July 2025.
“We will see more sunspots, more solar flares, more eruptions and consequently more effects on technology here on earth,” Murtagh said.
Intensity levels
Good news: Solar researchers predict that this cycle will be less intense than the most active cycles of previous centuries.
However, society in the 21st century seems unprepared for the consequences of cascading technical shortcomings that are likely to be caused by future major storms.
“The sun is the giver of life, but it can also be cruel – especially in the technology we rely on for so much of what we do today,” Murtagh said.
Congress passed a 2020 bill calling on the National Security Foundation, NASA and the Department of Defense to continue supporting basic space-related research.
Some other governments seem less focused on the issue.
Baker recalls a letter he received from a troubled woman in France who contacted officials there for advice on how to prepare for a major geomagnetic storm.
“We suggest you buy a chocolate bar, eat it and wait for the end of the world,” she was told, according to Baker.
Source: sn.dk