China increasingly sees the war in Ukraine – and the role of the United States and its NATO allies in supporting Kyiv against Moscow – as a reflection of future tensions between the military bloc and Beijing in the Indo-Pacific region.
Ever since Russian tanks first crossed into Ukraine on February 24, Beijing has taken a difficult line between not providing direct support to the Moscow invasion while accusatory The United States and other NATO countries to provoke the war by allowing the security alliance to expand eastward despite protests from the Kremlin.
Now that the war continues to grind with the Russian military suffering from major setbacks on the battlefield, China has increased its rhetoric to warn of NATO and the US footprint in Asia.
“NATO, a military organization in the North Atlantic, has in recent years come to the Asia-Pacific region to throw its weight around and provoke conflicts,” said Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry. sa at the end of April. “NATO has destroyed Europe. Is it now trying to destroy the Asia-Pacific region and even the world?
Wang’s comments were a response to earlier remarks from British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who demanded that NATO be strengthened in the wake of the war in Ukraine and warned China that the country should “play by the rules.”
The extra focus on NATO comes from Beijing, as both China and the United States see Russia’s invasion as an obstacle to future tensions between the two countries in Asia. NATO said last year that it intended to focus more on China and Beijing is expected to play a major role in the bloc’s strategy going forward.
Likewise, Washington is increasingly convinced that the conflict gives it an unexpected long-term advantage, too Bloomberg reported on May 10 that US officials believe that strengthened European defense spending and a weakened Russia could allow it to accelerate a security change against China.
These goals are part of the shared mistrust of NATO and the United States that has led Beijing and Moscow closer in recent years and why many analysts believe that China has not abandoned Russia throughout its brutal war in Ukraine.
Similarly, experts and Western officials warn that Beijing is closely monitoring the response to Russia’s invasion and drawing potential lessons from possible tensions over Taiwan, which China claims is its territory and which has threatened to invade if Taipei refuses to submit to its control.
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“If China joins the West to condemn Russia, there will be much applause in Washington and most European capitals.” But it will lose Russia’s partnership, wrote Colonel Zhou Bo, a retired officer in China’s Liberation Army (PLA), in Economist on May 9th. “And it’s only a matter of time before America takes on China again. The Biden administration’s policy towards my country is “extreme competition” that only ends with war. ‘
Ukraine’s war as a “mirror”
The parallels drawn between the US strategy in the Indo-Pacific region and NATO’s expansion in Europe are not new, and both China and Russia underline this point in the joint 5,000-word statement they released in February when Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin declared a “no-limits” partnership.
The document expressed its opposition to the “further enlargement of NATO” and promised to “remain very vigilant on the negative effects of the United States Indo – Pacific Strategy.”
A giant screen broadcasts news footage from a virtual meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin in a shopping mall in Beijing in December 2021.
Despite Chinese protests, experts point out that there are important differences between NATO’s role and the US strategy in the Indo-Pacific region, which also includes a wider range of economic and political policies outside the bloc and the US dealing with its long Pacific border.
Nevertheless, the war in Ukraine will affect the region, with China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Le Yucheng proverb in March that the crisis could be used as a “mirror” to see the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region.
For US President Joe Biden’s administration, the transition to Asia is seen as critical and long-awaited.
Washington has increasingly warned that China is abusing its military and economic influence in the region, and points to the country’s efforts to exercise greater control over Hong Kong, expand its military presence in the South China Sea and crack down on human rights in Xinjiang province. which has seen more than 1 million Uighurs, Kazakhs and other Muslim minorities detained in camps.
But while both US and Chinese officials see parallels between the war in Ukraine and rising tensions in Asia, they are learning different lessons.
U.S. officials continue to see increased defense spending in Europe, as well as both Finland and Sweden on an immediate path against NATO membership, as a positive security development that could enable the United States to follow up on its long-delayed “pivot to Asia. ‘ That policy was first outlined by US President Barack Obama and the move is seen as necessary because US political circles increasingly see China, not Russia, as the country’s main military opponent.
A Taiwanese flag is carried by a Chinook helicopter during a rehearsal for the upcoming National Day celebrations in Taipei in October 2021.
However, Chinese officials and experts draw different conclusions from the reflections they see in Ukraine.
Beijing – and Xi in particular – have long supported “strategic autonomy”, a concept driven by French President Emmanuel Macron that calls for Europe to play a more independent role in its defense, which relies less on the United States.
On May 10th call with Macron, Xi pressured the French president and other European leaders to take security “into their own hands”, reflecting previous comments from a May 9 call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Although the long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine remain uncertain, as does the future of European “strategic autonomy”, Beijing increasingly seems to believe that it could further delay the US strategic turn towards China and lead to a lasting split between European and NATO allies. .
“Joe Biden had hoped to put Russia’s policies on a ‘stable and predictable’ basis in order to focus on the US Indo – Pacific strategy. The war in Ukraine will undoubtedly distract America’s attention and [siphon] away resources’, wrote Zhou, the retired PLA officer. “The question is … how long Mr. Biden will allow Ukraine to remain a distraction.”
Copyright (c) 2018. RFE / RL, Inc. Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Washington DC 20036
Source: sn.dk