The Russian media has reported that the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO may have long-term effects on Arctic co-operation.
If Finland and Sweden join NATO, then, with the exception of Russia, all the remaining seven Arctic Council countries will be members of the military alliance.
Other members of the Arctic Council are the United States, Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Norway and Iceland. These countries suspended their participation in the Council on 3 March due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
"It is understandable that a change in the military status of these countries would lead to some adjustments in northern co-operation. Time will tell what the consequences will be," Russia’s highest Arctic official Nikolai Korchunov said Ria Novosti.
Russia is currently holding the presidency of the Council, but in May 2023 the role is due to shift to Norway.
Finland’s Arctic Ambassador Petteri Vuorimäkidoes not believe that NATO enlargement will increase tensions within the Arctic Council.
"Security issues do not fall within the remit of the Arctic Council," Vuorimäki explained.
Following the accession of Crimea in 2014, dialogue with Russia remained open despite intense debate. When the Council was formed in the 1990s, it was argued that the policy of great powers should be excluded from Arctic cooperation. This has also been a message that Russia repeated last week in an attempt to bring other members back to the table.
Climate crisis at the heart of the Council
Russia considers NATO a hostile organization, but Vuorimäki said he hoped that this distrust would not spread to the Arctic Council, which focuses on combating climate change and indigenous peoples’ rights.
"It would be in everyone’s interests for cooperation to continue," Vuorimäki told Yle.
By Timo KoivurovaA research professor at the Arctic Center, Russia still has a long way to go with Arctic cooperation, as most of the region, half of its coastline, belongs to Russia.
"Russia benefits from international laws in the Arctic. For example, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea protects large areas on its continental shelf," Koivurova said.
Koivurova also said that Russia’s military threats in the region are more obscure.
"Sovereignty is quite clear among the Arctic states. Russia’s military objectives in the Arctic are difficult to outline," Koivurova clarified.
Arctic Council stuck for three months
The Arctic Council has some 130 ongoing projects to tackle climate change, biodiversity, indigenous peoples and sustainable development. None of these projects has progressed since the Member States, with the exception of Russia, suspended their participation in the Council in March.
Koivurova believed that Arctic Council cooperation would continue without Russia, as these projects address serious concerns and Moscow was only a fraction of many projects.
Vuorimäki said there are fears that the Arctic will be divided into Eastern and Western countries, with Russia reaping economic benefits from the Arctic, while other members of the Arctic Council are working for a more sustainable future.
It has been wondered whether China and India are Russia’s future partners in the Arctic. China has already drilled natural gas in the Yamal Peninsula with the blessing of Russia, and the Asian country is also interested in further exploration in the region.
However, Koivurova does not believe that these fault lines will crack, but believes that at some point the Arctic Council will bring all its members to the table.