The Russian war in Ukraine has shaken consumer confidence in the economic situation. The barometer results also reflect widespread expectations of rising interest rates as a result of rising consumer prices.
“Russia’s military action in Ukraine creates a climate of general insecurity in Europe”, Mariia SomerlaSenior expert in Finance Finland, said To Helsingin Sanomat. “Rising consumer prices are weakening consumer purchasing power and raising interest rates in the market.”
The barometer reflects the views and expectations of bank executives about credit demand. None of the 62 executives who responded to the survey expected credit demand to grow, the first such incident in barometer history.
The results can be tied to a string that predicts a recession in Finland.
Statistics Finland reported about a week ago, consumer confidence has remained stagnant for three consecutive months. The Confederation of Finnish Industries EK was revealed that confidence is declining in a number of areas.
Meri ObstbaumThe Bank of Finland’s Forecast Manager said on 1 June that the purchasing power of Finns will inevitably weaken next year. “It seems that a contraction in purchasing power this year is quite inevitable with current wage and inflation developments,” he said. taken into account To STT.
Danske Bank said last week that the national economy is in danger of slipping into a short-term recession that could last until the end of the year.
“The first quarter ended positively, meaning that the volume of GDP rose from the last quarter of last year. I assume we count in the second and third quarters of this year, which would meet the definition of a recession. Pasi KuoppamäkiChief Economist of Danske Bank, stated To Helsingin Sanomat.
He added that it is possible that the fourth quarter will be better than the previous ones if inflation slows from current levels.
“I think that next year at the latest, the situation could improve in the sense that China will take control of the coronary virus, the global economy will improve, inflation will slow down and consumers will feel better as a result,” Kuoppamäki said.
Also Niku MäättänenProfessor of Economics at the University of Helsinki, considers it unlikely that the recession would be nearly as bad as the financial crisis or the recession of the 1990s.
“Finland is facing a much better position than before,” he told Helsingin Sanomat. “Finland had a real competitiveness problem in the recession that followed the financial crisis, but it is no longer that. The export industry is currently doing well compared to it. ”
“I don’t think the next recession can be as dramatic as the previous ones.”
Aleksi Teivainen – HT
Source: The Nordic Page