Analyzes of the relationship between human mobility and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 revealed three groups of countries

“A pandemic has begun for more than two years that has changed the lives of many of us. Current developments in the spread of suggest that this chapter in history, called COVID-19, may hopefully fade to an end. However, much remains to be learned. Reflecting on our response to the pandemic could help us learn useful lessons on how to minimize the damage caused by similar challenges, especially now that communicable diseases appear to be a new threat, ”the researchers said. Mounir Ould Setti and Sylvain Tollis points out.

The closures and restrictions on movement imposed by the were probably a hallmark in response to this pandemic. These interventions were found to be invasive in some conditions and circumstances. Were the locks and restraints effective in preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2? Researchers at the University of Eastern analyzed how mobility adapted to the daily changes in the effective replication rate of SARS-CoV-2. An effective replication rate reflects the rate of spread of the disease because it captures dynamic changes in the spread of the virus from person to person. Mobility indicators are based on anonymized location data from users of Google services whose location history is activated on their mobile phones. Tasks are classified into different mobility categories, including, for example, residential mobility, which indicates that people are at home. The researchers focused on the pre-vaccination phase of the pandemic and the pre-concern phase from 15 February to 31 December 2020, analyzing the daily changes in mobility and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in 125 countries and 52 US regions or states. .

The analysis identified three groups of countries based on correlation models between mobility indicators and the effective reproductive rate of SARS-CoV-2. Group 1 consisted of countries with “normal” correlations, i.e., negative correlations between residential mobility and SARS-CoV-2 spread, such as the United States, , and most countries. Group 2 included countries where the correlations were “inverse,” suggesting a positive correlation between housing mobility and SARS-CoV-2 spread. Group 3 consisted of countries with more complex or “unclear” correlation models.

In Group 1 countries, such as , the more people spent at home, the less prevalence of the disease was observed, while in Group 2 countries, such as , the exact opposite was observed: the more people spent at home, the more diseases occurred. spread. In addition, in many countries, correlation models between mobility and disease spread showed a minimum level of disease spread at the median level (“U-shaped” correlations), indicating the optimal level above which restricting human mobility may lead to further disease spread. In other words, complete closures may have been detrimental at certain levels and in some countries.

The authors concluded that a systematic analysis of the correlations between mobility and disease spread at the regional level could help to understand the optimal level of movement restriction that minimizes the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in that region.

Source: Department of Public Health and Clinical Nutrition,

# COVID-19

Source: The Nordic Page

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