The recent disruption in passenger schedules is clearly visible in the rise in partial cancellations and changes to bookings. Between May 30 and July 10, it has nearly tripled from 13 percent before the pandemic (in 2019) to 36 percent this summer.
The collapse of last-minute bookings and the increase in cancellations and changes is a significant blow to the tourism industry’s summer prospects. On May 30, intra-European flight bookings for July and August were 17% of the 2019 level. However, seven weeks later, on July 11, they were 22% behind, a 5 percentage point slowdown.
The relative slowdown has been much worse in Amsterdam and London. At the end of May, July-August bookings from Amsterdam were 9% of the 2019 level and from London 9% ahead. They have since fallen back to 22% and 2%, corresponding to a decline of 13 percentage points from Amsterdam and 11 percentage points from London.
Due to the slowdown in last-minute bookings from Amsterdam, London has suffered the relatively biggest setback in its summer prospects; where bookings have slowed from 3% of pre-2019 levels in the fourth week of May to 18% as of July 11, a drop of 21 percentage points. By the same measure (percentage point drop), it is followed by Lisbon, 18%; Barcelona, 15%; Madrid, 14%; and Rome 9%. Following the same approach as London, the most affected destinations are Istanbul, where bookings have fallen by 32%. Palma Mallorca and Nice, 12%; and Lisbon and Athens, 7 percent.
A 5 percentage point slowdown in intra-European bookings from the last week of May to July 11 is reflected in a similar decline in airline seats over the same period. ForwardKeys reveals that planned intra-European seat capacity has fallen by 5 percent across the continent, with Amsterdam and London seeing the biggest reductions, by 11 percent and 8 percent respectively.
Olivier PontiVP Insights, ForwardKeys, said: “There are both positives and negatives to think about this summer. On the other hand, it’s encouraging to see a strong recovery in demand post-pandemic, with summer bookings in May rising faster than 2019 levels. This was excellent news for travel, tourism and hospitality an industry that desperately needs business. However, things have returned so quickly that airports and airlines have struggled to cope, causing chaos for passengers whose flights are affected. While we can be confident that airports will eventually manage to recruit the staff they need, there are a few worrying trends . The first is the rise in oil prices fueled by the war in Ukraine, which is driving up the cost of flying. The second is inflation (also a result of the war), which is likely to leave most travelers with less to afford. Third, the increased level of disruption will significantly dampen demand, as last-minute flight bookings slow down dramatically and cancellations increase. At the end of May it looked like we were in for an exceptional summer for intra-European travel; but now it’s probably just good.”
Source: ForwardKeys
Source: The Nordic Page