The general election is approaching. Next week, Danes will go to the polls to cast their votes. We have made a small guide that gives you an overview of what will happen and what you should be aware of.
Before November 1: Politics as usual or revolution ahead?
The Danish political landscape has changed significantly since the last general election in 2019.
After his defeat, former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Ramussen stepped down as leader of the right wing Venstre to form a new center party called the Moderates. Its aim is to promote a governing coalition in the centre. Since the 1970s, Danish politics has been somewhat clustered in the so-called bloc politics: the red and the blue bloc.
The party is ready to get a large share of mandates. In the latest opinion polls, it was on course for 11 per cent. It is believed that many Liberal voters have left the party to support the former prime minister with his goals. Rasmussen has not officially applied for the top post, and therefore officially leaves current Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Liberal leader Jakob Ellemann-Jensen and Conservative leader Søren Pape Poulsen as candidates. Nevertheless, there are rumors that Rasmussen may become prime minister after all.
1 November: What to watch out for?
Tuesday, November 1 is Election Day: As a recent Voxmeter poll suggests (see below), it could be a close race.
On election day itself, keep an eye on the first exit polls, as there is a good chance that these results will remain the same with a relatively small margin of error. These exit polls are often published during voting.
Post November 1: What is likely to happen
Wake up on November 2, we probably know which parties have exceeded expectations and how it will affect the strength of red and blue block.
Nevertheless, the party with the most votes, which is likely to be the Social Democrats, will have the first steal in the attempt to reach 90 mandates. In 2015 it failed due to a lack of support and the Left was free to form a government, although it only came third in the polls. But in 2019, with the help of its red bloc allies, it had a comfortable majority.
But this time it is doubtful whether the Radicals will be in the majority and whether they will have enough mandates without the support of the Moderates. Should Lars Løkke Rasmussen be interested in joining the Social Democrats, it is doubtful whether he will also join all of her Red Bloc allies, or only the centrist ones, such as SF. This may leave the door open for a centrist blue block party to join the majority – Venstre or even the Liberal Alliance. But who knows: Perhaps Frederiksen and Rasmussen cannot agree and leave the door open for the Liberals to try to form a majority.
danish People’s Party is fighting to get representation
The far-right Danish People’s Party looks set to score a terrible result. In 2015, with 21 percent, it was the second largest party in the Folketing, but now it is struggling to get the 2 percent threshold needed to get seats in the Folketing. Much will depend on its support among the elderly.
Are the Danish Democrats the new far-right party?
The Danish People’s Party has a fair share of the vote after the rise of Inger Støjberg’s right-wing party Danmarksdemokraterne. Støjberg, the former Minister for Immigration and Integration, was kicked out of Venstre, of which she was vice-chairman, late last year, and found unworthy to retain her place in the Folketing. She then stood trial for an illegal order she gave as a minister to separate asylum-seeking couples if one of them was under 18. The Supreme Court in December sentenced her to two months’ detention, which she served at home earlier this year. After her release, she founded the Danish Democrats.
Liberal Alliance stronger than ever
The liberal party Liberal Alliance won only 2.3 percent in the last election in 2019, but now with the use of social media and clever campaign strategies, especially on TikTok, it is on the charge and has tripled its support. People have been queuing for hours to shake LA manager Alex Vansplagh’s hand and take a picture with him. The party measures 7.3 per cent.
The left’s support halved, but still blue block leaders
After the founding of the Moderates and the Danish Democrats by two former prominent members of the party, the Left stands to lose big in this election. The latest polls suggest it is likely to win half of the 23.4 percent it won in 2019. This drop would have major consequences, although the Liberals will most likely hold on to their role as the leading party in the blue bloc after the Conservatives’ dramatic collapse.
How Radikale’s strategy backfired
Radicals forced the election by threatening a vote of no confidence. The election is here now, but the public didn’t seem to like the way the party handled the situation. The latest polls suggest a loss of almost 5 percentage points, which would bring them down to 3.8 percent. Voters are believed to have drifted over to the Moderates, underscoring Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s status as kingmaker in this year’s election – a job Radicals used to enjoy in the 1980s and 90s, before the Danish People’s Party took over.
Source: The Nordic Page