Mette’s magic formula is in the pot

It is already 12 days since the 2022 general election and not much has happened yet!

However, one thing is certain. could have dissolved her on 2 November, as is customary the day after an election, but she is still very much in charge.

The negotiations for a majority, along with the formation of a new government, have been in earnest since Friday 4 November.

Yesterday, Frederiksen said that there was no new government on the horizon, so the negotiations could conceivably continue for a while longer!

Coalition on the map
The current government consists exclusively of members of the PM’s party . But that seems to be changing with the new set-up, where as many as four parties are represented in the cabinet.

Frederiksen had exactly the right number of mandates to form the same red bloc majority that took her to power in 2019 – 90 of the 179 seats in the . But it is a slim majority – some would call it fragile.

Frederiksen is clearly in favor of forming a party in the middle, and it is highly likely that she will exclude the allies Radicals, whose ultimatum led to the election being held eight months earlier than planned, and Enhedslisten.

Down in the middle
The new party Moderates, led by the two-time prime minister and election kingpin , will undoubtedly be involved, as he has so far been involved in virtually all the negotiations.

Together, the Social Democrats and the Moderates have 66 mandates – we will have to see who joins them.

But if they were to include the parties closest to the centre, it would probably be Venstre and SF, who together have 38 mandates – a comfortable majority of 104.

Left u-turn
Liberal leader Jacob Ellemann-Jensen has performed something of a U-turn in the past fortnight.

Originally partnered with Conservatoire leader – to be fair, the latter was always the ventriloquist’s dummy – he has switched from not trusting the prime minister to being completely open to working with her.

Nevertheless, his inclusion – some are tipping him to be the next Secretary of State – is not certain. But it is believed that Rasmussen has had a great influence on Venstre, his former party, being at the table.

Output measurements misleading
The negotiations followed a vote in which, with 27.5 percent of the vote, the Social Democrats secured two more mandates than in 2019, the best result since 2001 and, crucially for the tension factor for the viewing public, 4.4 percentage points more than the exit polls. predicted!

The exit votes were also wide compared to the Danish Democrats, who ended up with 14 mandates. The party ended up with over 8 percent after the of 6.9.

In fact, for the duration of the coverage, DR expected the red bloc to miss out on a majority of 90 seats by one seat, only to update this at the end when all the votes had been counted.

Before their chickens hatched
Until then Blue Bloc supporters really thought they still had a chance of getting a majority! The exit poll had only predicted that the red bloc would win 85 seats.

The left’s political spokesperson suggested on election night that Rasmussen should join the Blue bloc and forget the centre, provided he backed Ellemann-Jensen as prime minister.

Even the Conservatoire’s leader Søren Pape Poulsen seemed optimistic despite the fact that he ended up with just 5.5 percent – ten mandates – a far cry from the 16 percent his party polled in early September before the scandal about his untruthful husband and their subsequent divorce.

He started the night considering a majority but ended it insisting he would not resign.


Big winners

Liberal Alliance: What a turnaround for a party that was struggling to survive after the 2019 election. Jumping from 4 to 14 seats means a massive success for Alex Vansplagh’s party.

The moderates: Having founded the Moderates just months ago, Rasmussen must be shocked that his party stormed into the Folketing with 16 seats.

The Danish Democrats: and the Danish Democrats also had a dream election debut, sweeping into the Folketing with an impressive 14 seats – an increase of 1.2 percent on the share predicted in the exit poll.

Big Losers:

Left: Support fell 13.3 percentage points compared to 2019 – a loss of 20 seats to end with 23 – to give the party its worst election result in 34 years.

Radicals: It lost over half of its mandates, to slide from 16 to just seven.

Danish People’s Party: The party ended up with just 2.7 percent of the vote – its worst performance in history.

See fact box below for more key figures from the election.

Source: The Nordic Page

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